With the NBA Summer League starting back up, teams are getting a chance to show off rookies, teach them the system, and allow them to mesh with the team. Using some data analysis, I was able to run some numbers and make some predictions about rookies' success and lack thereof. To measure the impact of each rookie, I used his college statistics for point, rebounds, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals (all per game). I then subtracted last year's starter for the team they are with to measure the immediate impact. The financial value was somewhat hard to do since some players have not signed contracts, so instead I multiplied the impact by the square root of their overall pick number because the NBA uses tiered salaries per pick. Here are some highlights:
Rookies With Highest Impact (Not Value-Weighted)
DeAndre Ayton – Suns
Chandler Hutchison – Bulls
Marvin Bagley III – Kings
These three players were the only rookies with potential non-value weighted impacts greater than 10. I predict the Suns made the correct choice picking DeAndre Ayton with the first overall pick. The Suns were in desperate need of a center, and Ayton's college stats well outdistance Tyson Chandler's stats from last year. Look out for Chandler Hutchison, as well because I predict that he will surprise a lot of people. I compared Denzel Valentine's stats to his and they weren't even close. Watch for Hutchison's name further down the list. Finally, Marvin Bagley III looks poised for NBA success. A solid second overall pick for the Kings, he fills a serious need for the team, and I predict will be having an immediate positive impact.
Rookies With Highest Impact (Value-Weighted)
Chandler Hutchison – Bulls
Kevin Hervey – Thunder
Alize Johnson – Pacers
These three rookies all had value-weighted impacts over 50, with no other rookies hitting that number. Hutchison had the highest, and as I stated previously he is sure to surprise a lot of people. Look for big things this coming year. Hervey and Johnson both were helped by low draft positions, with Hervery at 57 and Johnson at 50. I predict both are going to get some decent minutes off the bench and have a higher impact than their draft position may warrant.
Rookies with Worst Impact (Value-Weighted)
Kostas Antetokounmpo – Mavericks
De'Anthony Melton – Rockets
Thomas Welsh – Nuggets
Gary Trent Jr. – Trail Blazers
These four rookies are all likely to almost no impact on the team they were drafted by. These four were the highest no matter whether the value was taken into consideration or not. Antetokounmpo was the last overall pick, and frankly I'm surprised he was drafted. However, he does have a very high upside, but it will take a while to develop. The other three will also most likely end up in the development league, as they all have gaping flaws in some area. A few bigger names to look out for as being busts are Jaren Jackson of the Grizzlies, Mo Bamba of the Magic, and Michael Porter Jr. of the Nuggets.
Teams With The Highest-Impact Rookies (Value-Weighted)
Thunder
Pacers
Bulls
I decided to only show value-weighted impact for teams because it truly shows how well the team drafted for need. The Thunder had three low picks, all with positive impact values, giving them a chance to have all three make a difference. However, one issue that is hard to account for mathematically is that two picks, Hamidou Diallo and Devon Hall, play the same position, which means some impact will cancel out. The Pacers had two picks, Aaron Holiday (23rd) and Alize Johnson (50th) with solid positive impacts. Each one appears to have the ability to play beyond their draft value. Lastly, the Bulls had Wendell Carter, Jr. (7th) and the previously mentioned Chandler Hutchison (22nd). My bold prediction for this post is that one of these two will win Rookie of the Year. The Bulls had a good draft and look primed for a turnaround with a young core group of players.
Teams With The Lowest-Impact Rookies (Value-Weighted)
Nuggets
Mavericks
Rockets
The Nuggets drafted three rookies, all with negative impacts. This shows the team didn't draft for need, and at least for their highest pick, Michael Porter, Jr., they reached. I personally was never a big fan of drafting him because of his injury issues. Additionally, they hampered his performance greatly. The big reason the Mavericks are on here is because of Kostas Antetokounmpo. Their other two rookies had small positive impact, but he offset them. He will simply be a project that either turns into a superstar or gets forgotten quickly. Lastly, the Rockets had two low draft picks, which makes it simple that they most likely won't contribute. Give it a few years and things may be different, but for right now, the Rockets rookies both probably won't see much time.
